Probability Spaces (𝛺,𝐹,𝐏)
  • is a type of mathematical space
  • is a type of measure space such that the measure of the whole space is equal to one
  • in probability theory, a probability space or a probability triple (𝛺, 𝐹, 𝐏) is a mathematical construct that provides a formal model of a random process:
    • a sample space/set 𝛺 which is the set of all possible outcomes
    • an event space/set 𝐹 more specifically a σ-algebra on 𝛺, where each event is a subset of 𝛺 i.e. a set containing zero or more outcomes (there are a maximum of 2|𝛺| events)
    • a probability measure 𝐏: 𝐹 → [0, 1] that assigns each event in the event space a probability (i.e. a number between 0 and 1)

Probability Space - Definition

A probability space is a triple (𝛺, 𝐹, 𝑃) consisting of:

  • a sample space 𝛺 is the non-empty set of all possible outcomes
  • the event space σ-algebra 𝐹⊆2𝛺 (also called σ-field) – a set of subsets of 𝛺, called events, such that:
    • 𝐹 contains the entire sample space: 𝛺∊𝐹
    • 𝐹 is closed under complements: if 𝐴∊𝐹, then also 𝛺\𝐴∊𝐹
    • 𝐹 is closed under countable unions: if 𝐴𝑖∊ 𝐹 for 𝑖=1,2,…, then also (⋃1≤𝑖≤∞ 𝐴𝑖) ∊ 𝐹
    • 𝐹 is closed under countable intersections: if 𝐴𝑖∊ 𝐹 for 𝑖=1,2,…, then also (⋂1≤𝑖≤∞ 𝐴𝑖) ∊ 𝐹 # the corollary from the previous two properties and De Morgan’s law
  • the probability measure, 𝐏: 𝐹 → [0, 1], that assigns each event in the event space a probability, which is a number between 0 and 1
    • 𝐏 is countably additive (also called σ-additive): if {𝐴𝑖}1≤𝑖≤∞ ⊆ 𝐹 is a countable collection of pairwise disjoint sets, then 𝐏(⋃1≤𝑖≤∞ 𝐴𝑖) = 𝛴1≤𝑖≤∞ 𝐏(𝐴𝑖)
    • the measure of the entire sample space is equal to one: 𝐏(𝛺) = 1

Probability Space - Example of Flipping 2 Coins

probability-space-example.drawio

𝛺 = {(H,H), (H,T), (T,H), (T,T)}

  • 𝐏(observation ∊ 𝑓) where 𝑓 ∊ F

for example:

  • 𝐏(observation ∊ {(H,H)}) = 0.25
  • 𝐏(observation ∊ {(H,H), (T,T)}) = 0.50